Recognition is on the horizon
Time for a Strategic Reset in the Horn of Africa: Recognize Somaliland
By Prof. Nassir Hussein Kahin, Political Analyst, International Affairs Writer, Managing Editor, hornofafricastrategicreview.com and Founder Somaliland Unity & Recognition Initiative (SURI) Facebook group
For two decades, the United States, European Union, and African Union have poured billions into Somalia, attempting to build a national army, counter Al-Shabaab, and stabilize a fragile government in Mogadishu. Yet despite more than $20 billion in American development and security assistance and over $3 billion from the EU, Somalia remains corrupt, insecure, and increasingly compromised by foreign interests.
President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, now in his second term, has demonstrated not only ineffectiveness but dangerous cynicism. On July 6, his government authorized arms transfers to Laascanood—a town in Somaliland—to support a China-backed militia aiming to destabilize Somaliland’s democratically elected government. The very next day, Al-Shabaab launched a new offensive in central Somalia, exploiting the vacuum left by redeployed Somali troops. Once again, extremists gain ground as Mogadishu pursues narrow political vendettas.
Western taxpayers should ask: what are we funding?
Somalia’s federal government has become an unreliable partner. Transparency International ranks it among the most corrupt countries in the world. Security forces trained and equipped with Western aid often act as political militias, and elite units like Danab are routinely undermined by poor leadership and inconsistent pay.
This dysfunction is not merely internal. Somalia’s alignment with Beijing reflects a growing geopolitical challenge. China has backed Somali claims over Somaliland in retaliation for Hargeisa’s decision to establish ties with Taiwan. In doing so, Beijing has transformed Somalia into a pawn in its campaign to isolate Taipei and assert control over the Red Sea corridor.
Meanwhile, Somaliland—a self-governing, stable, and democratic region—has stood as a bulwark against extremism and Chinese influence. It maintains a functioning multi-party democracy, holds regular elections, and exerts full control over its territory. Crucially, it has no Al-Shabaab presence. It also hosts the deep-water port of Berbera, a strategic asset overlooking the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
Legislation currently under consideration in the U.S. House of Representatives would authorize the President to recognize Somaliland in exchange for U.S. basing rights in Berbera. This is not just symbolism; it’s strategy. A U.S. presence in Berbera would counterbalance China’s base in Djibouti, secure key maritime routes, and provide a logistical hub for operations across the Red Sea and East Africa.
Critics argue that recognition risks destabilizing the region. But the status quo is already unstable. Somalia has proven unable to provide security or governance. Ethiopia, desperate for Red Sea access, has signaled support for Somaliland’s autonomy. The Turkey-brokered Ankara Agreement is faltering. Regional powers are realigning. Washington must lead, not lag.
It’s time to abandon the illusion of “One Somalia.” Sovereignty must be earned. Somaliland has done just that. Rather than continuing to reward failure in Mogadishu, the U.S. should recognize and reward success in Hargeisa.
America needs partners, not proxies. Somaliland is ready.
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