Bab El-Mandeb
By Prof. Nassir Hussein Kahin.
Act I: The Bitter Shores of Sovereignty
In the ancient lands of the Horn of Africa, where dust meets the restless seas, a drama unfolds as fierce as the gales of the Red Sea. Ethiopia, a landlocked giant with dreams of maritime freedom, stands as the restless protagonist, seeking a path to the ocean it lost to Eritrea’s independence. To its south, Somalia, fractured and embattled, clings to its fading vision of unity under the banner of “One Somalia.” At the heart of this struggle lies Somaliland, an unrecognized beacon of stability, standing defiant against the storms of geopolitics.
But no tale of ambition and betrayal is complete without its shadowy puppeteers. Turkey, the cunning mediator, steps into the scene, seeking to bind Ethiopia and Somalia under the Ankara Declaration—a treaty of fragile promises. Meanwhile, Djibouti and China loom in the background, scheming to preserve their dominance by sabotaging Ethiopia’s dreams. Egypt and Eritrea, too, play their parts as sly antagonists, fueling chaos to advance their own designs.
Act II: The Masks of Diplomacy
On a cold December stage, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud shake hands in Ankara, a gesture of uneasy reconciliation choreographed by Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Beneath their smiles lies a cauldron of mistrust. The Ankara Declaration promises Ethiopia a lifeline to the Red Sea, but its vague words conceal the seeds of discord.
In the shadows, Djibouti sharpens its claws, fearful of losing Ethiopia’s dependence on its port. China, whispering in Somalia’s ear, promises riches in return for loyalty. Somalia, emboldened by these overtures, turns its gaze eastward to destabilize Somaliland’s territories of Sool and Sanaag, using Chinese funds and weapons to undermine its rival.
Meanwhile, Egypt, driven by its Nile grievances, fans the flames of dissent in Ethiopia. Proxies stir unrest in Ethiopia’s Somali Region, with massacres like that of Da’awaley serving as warnings to Addis Ababa. Eritrea, ever the elusive swing player, sends cryptic messages of support to all sides, waiting for the opportune moment to strike.
Act III: The Fall of Promises
The fragile Ankara Declaration begins to crumble as the weight of history and ambition bears down. Ethiopia, lured by Somaliland’s stability and the strategic Berbera Port, questions its alignment with Somalia. Somaliland, yearning for recognition and weary of Somalia’s meddling, strengthens its ties with the West and Taiwan.
Turkey, caught in the web of its own making, struggles to maintain its role as mediator. The U.S., watching from across the seas, contemplates its next move. The parallels with Kosovo become clear: Somaliland, like the Balkans’ breakaway state, stands as a bulwark against chaos, a natural ally in a tumultuous region.
Act IV: The Reckoning
As alliances fracture and proxy wars rage, Ethiopia aligns itself with Somaliland, seeking a direct route to the Red Sea. The U.S., recognizing the inevitability of the moment, takes the bold step of granting Somaliland Recognition. Like a lightning bolt splitting the storm clouds, America’s move reshapes the Horn of Africa, forcing regional players to recalibrate.
But this triumph comes at a cost. Djibouti seethes, Somalia’s “One Somalia” policy lies in ruins, and China’s grip on the region weakens. Egypt and Eritrea, thwarted in their schemes, retreat to plot anew.
Epilogue: A New Order
The dust settles, revealing a transformed landscape. Ethiopia, no longer landlocked, forges ahead with newfound economic strength. Somaliland, the “Kosovo of Africa,” emerges as a stable ally for the West. The Horn of Africa remains a theater of shifting alliances and endless intrigue, but for now, Ethiopia, Somaliland, and the U.S. have seized the upper hand in this geopolitical tragedy.
“All the world’s a stage,” Shakespeare once wrote, and in the Horn of Africa, the actors play their parts with blood, ambition, and the unrelenting tide of history.”
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